Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of Lower Ogun River Basin

  • A. O. Eruola
  • G. C. Ufeogbune
  • A. A. Eruola
  • O. A. Idowu
  • G. O. Oluwasanya
  • V. A. Ede
Keywords: Climate, water balance, basin, Ogun, aridity


The lower Ogun River is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location at the southern edge of western Nigeria and water management planners are facing considerable uncertainties on future demand and availability of water. This study was carried out to investigate the effect of climate change on water balance of lower Ogun River basin. The procedure of Ayoade (1976) water balance bookkeeping model was followed in computation. The temperature and water balance components were compared using descriptive statistics. The result showed that climate change influences the water balance components: rainfall, evapotranspiration, runoff and change in storage. Recurrent dry spells were encountered in the years 1988, 1990, 1998, 2006 and 2009. However, in the recent years increasing rainfall amount have been observed to cause flood that displaces most inhabitance of the lower basin area. Rainfall variability, land degradation and desertification are some of the factors that may also contribute to variation in the component of the hydrologic cycle in the river basin. The recurrent dry spells and flood encountered in the basin represented a particularly trying episode for the area, with massive losses of agricultural production and its consequence on human lives and domestic economies. Thus, climate change may become  a great obstacle to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which the Government of Nigeria  is committed.


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